New-vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to rebound in February after a slower-than-expected start to the year. Cox Automotive is forecasting a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.3 million vehicles for February, an increase from the 15.6 million pace in January and slightly higher than the 15.7 million rate from February 2024. This marks the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year sales growth.
The anticipated growth in February comes despite the slight decline in new-vehicle sales volume compared to last year. February 2025 will have one fewer selling day than February 2024, contributing to a stronger sales pace on an adjusted basis. While overall sales volume is projected to fall marginally year-over-year, the increase in sales pace reflects a positive market outlook and a return of delayed buyers.
After a strong finish to 2024, which saw the highest sales pace since the spring of 2021, January’s new-vehicle sales were slower than anticipated. Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough notes that several factors contributed to the dip, including adverse weather conditions that affected large portions of the country and potential delays caused by California wildfires and the U.S. presidential inauguration. These conditions led some buyers to postpone their purchases, but Cox Automotive expects many of those delayed buyers to return in February, boosting sales.
The forecast for February reflects this expected uptick. The projected sales volume is approximately 1.25 million vehicles, a 0.3% decrease from February 2024 but an 11.3% increase from January’s total. The continued upward momentum in the sales pace highlights a recovering automotive market despite the early-year slowdown.
Looking ahead, Cox Automotive forecasts a modest increase in new-vehicle sales for the full year 2025. The company projects 16.3 million vehicles sold, marking a nearly 2% increase from the 16 million units sold in 2024. Positive economic growth and improved consumer buying conditions are expected to support this growth. However, there are concerns about the potential negative effects of policy changes under the new administration, including tariff adjustments and revisions to the federal EV tax credit. These changes could impact the overall outlook for the automotive industry in 2025.
Despite the projected slight decline in year-over-year volume, the February sales pace improvement is a positive sign for the industry. With 24 selling days, one less than both January and February 2024, the increase in sales pace is expected to continue its upward trajectory. The return of delayed buyers, combined with a favorable economic environment, should provide the boost needed for a successful month.
As the automotive industry moves through the first quarter of 2025, the forecasted February sales performance sets the stage for a more optimistic outlook for the year. Dealers can expect a steady increase in traffic as the market recovers from January’s slow pace and anticipate the return of more buyers throughout the remainder of the year.
